Forecasting time and place of earthquakes using a Semi-Markov model (with case study in Tehran province)


Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Industrial Engineering Faculty, Tehran, Iran


The paper examines the application of semi-Markov models to the phenomenon of earthquakes in Tehran
province. Generally, earthquakes are not independent of each other, and time and place of earthquakes are related
to previous earthquakes; moreover, the time between earthquakes affects the pattern of their occurrence; thus, this
occurrence can be likened to semi-Markov models. In our work, we divided the province of Tehran into six regions
and grouped the earthquakes regarding their magnitude into three classes. Using a semi-Markov model, it
proceeds to predict the likelihood of the time and place of occurrence of earthquakes in the province.